How to bluff
A bluff is a bet that wants a fold. Whether it makes money is a matter of arithmetic: how often your opponent folds against how much you risk.
The number a bluff needs
Divide your bet by the pot after the bet. A third of the pot needs folds 25% of the time, half the pot 33%, three quarters 43% and a full pot 50%.
If your opponent folds more often than that, the bet profits even if you never win when called. Smaller bluffs need to work less often, which is why a small bet into a weak range is often the best bluff there is.
Which hands to bluff with
Draws first. A flush draw or an open-ended straight draw wins some of the pots where it is called, so it needs fewer folds than the formula says. That is a semi-bluff.
On the river, where nothing can improve, prefer hands that block what your opponent would call with. Holding the ace of the suit on a three-flush board makes the nut flush impossible for them.
Do not bluff with hands that can win by checking. A weak pair has showdown value, and betting it mostly folds out worse hands.
Who to bluff
Bluff players who fold. Against someone who calls with any pair, a bluff loses at every size, and the right adjustment is to bet your good hands bigger instead.
A check from your opponent usually means a weaker range, and that is when small bluffs work. It does not mean they have nothing: some strong hands check to trap.
Work it out
Terms in this guide
Practise it
Reading is the easy part. Play the hand of the day, or deal ten hands in the trainer and see which of these decisions cost you the most.